* This transcript was created by voice-to-text technology. The transcript has not been edited for errors or omissions, it is for reference only and is not the official minutes of the meeting. [00:00:04] GOOD EVENING. TODAY IS [1. CALL TO ORDER ] MONDAY, MAY 15TH. WE'LL NOT CALL THE CITY COUNCIL SPECIAL MEETING TO ORDER AT 5:31 PM WE DO HAVE A QUORUM OF COUNSEL. ITEM NUMBER THREE AT PUBLIC COMMENTS. MADAM SECRETARY, DO WE HAVE ANY PUBLIC COMMENT REQUEST NOW? MR. MAYOR? THERE ARE NONE. OKAY, THANK YOU. WE HAVE ITEM FOUR, [(a) Presentation and Discussion - Presentation by Jon Hockenyos on the eco...] OUR DISCUSSION AND POSSIBLE ACTION, UH, FOR A PRESENTATION AND DISCUSSION. PRESENTATION BY ELENA PORTERS. GOOD EVENING MAYOR AND CITY COUNCIL. UH, TONIGHT WE HAVE JOHN HAWKS WITH T X P. HE IS GOING TO PROVIDE AN ECONOMIC FORECAST, UH, AND SALES TAX FORECAST FOR THE CITY. AS YOU ALL KNOW, THIS IS, UH, LIKE A KICKOFF TO THE BUDGET SEASON. WE HAVE HIM COME IN AND PROVIDE US, UM, SOME OF THE EXPECTATIONS WHEN IT COMES TO THE ECONOMY SO WE CAN USE THIS INFORMATION AND BUDGET PREPARATION. SO THIS TIME I'LL TURN IT OVER TO, UH, MR. HAWKINS. THANK YOU. THANK YOU. AND, UH, GOOD EVENING, MR. MAYOR, MEMBERS OF COUNCIL. THANK YOU ONCE AGAIN FOR HAVING ME BACK. I APPRECIATE IT. I ENJOY COMING EVERY EVERY YEAR AND AGAIN, HAVING A CHANCE TO TALK ABOUT THIS. SO I DO HAVE A PRESENTATION. IT IS ENTIRELY UP TO YOU. DO YOU WANT TO STOP AND ASK QUESTIONS ALONG THE WAY, OR WOULD YOU LIKE ME TO GO THROUGH THE WHOLE THING AND HOLD THE QUESTIONS TO THE END? LET'S DO THE WHOLE THING AND THEN THE WHOLE THING. ALL RIGHT, GREAT. SO, I'M AN ECONOMIST. ECONOMIST, TEND TO BE KIND OF GLOOMY GUYS A LITTLE BIT. I HAVE A TENDENCY, I THINK I'VE PREDICTED ABOUT EIGHT OUT OF THE LAST TWO RECESSIONS, GIVE OR TAKE. BUT I REALLY DO THINK WE'RE ABOUT READY TO STOP DEFYING GRAVITY AS A NATION. WE, I DO BELIEVE WE ARE ABOUT TO GO INTO RECESSION IF WE AREN'T IN ONE ALREADY. AND I'LL WALK YOU WHY I THINK THAT I GAVE YOU MY BACKSTORY BECAUSE I TEND TO LOOK SOMETIMES AS THE GLASS IS MAYBE A LITTLE BIT HALF EMPTY. UH, SO YOU SHOULD FACTOR THAT INTO THE CONVERSATION. BUT I THINK I'LL, I'LL BE ABLE TO SHOW YOU AT LEAST TO SOME DEGREE WHY I THINK WE ARE HEADED INTO RECESSION. ONE FACTOR CERTAINLY IS INFLATION. WE TALK ABOUT THIS ALL THE TIME. INFLATION REMAINS ELEVATED. IT'S COOLED OFF A LITTLE BIT, BUT MOST OF THE COOLING OFF HAS BEEN IN THINGS LIKE FOOD AND ENERGY SERVICES REMAIN RELATIVELY ELEVATED. AND FUNDAMENTALLY, WHAT'S DRIVING INFLATION RIGHT NOW, AS MUCH AS ANYTHING IS RISING WAGES. NOW, RISING WAGES OFTENTIMES ARE A GOOD THING. AND WE WENT THROUGH A LONG PERIOD IN THE UNITED STATES WHERE WAGES LAG BEHIND THE REST OF THE ECONOMY. BUT WAGES ARE RISING RAPIDLY AT THIS POINT. AND THE REASON FOR THAT IN PART IS CUZ WE DON'T HAVE ENOUGH PEOPLE TO DO THE JOBS. THAT VARIES UP A LITTLE BIT COMMUNITY TO COMMUNITY, BUT I'LL SHOW YOU SOME STUFF ABOUT LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION THAT SHOWS WE ARE REALLY DOWN IN TERMS OF HAVING AVAILABLE WORKERS. WE ARE CERTAINLY DOWN, NOT ONLY IN TERMS OF HAVING AVAILABLE WORKERS, BUT HAVING WORKERS WHO HAVE THE SKILLS THAT ARE NEEDED TO DO THE JOBS. AND AS A RESULT, WAGES ARE RISING RAPIDLY. AND WHAT THAT MEANS FUNDAMENTALLY IS EVEN THOUGH THE FED HAS RAISED INTEREST RATES 10 TIMES, IT'S NOT REALLY GONNA TOUCH RISING WAGES. AND SO I ACTUALLY AM OF THE OPINION THEY SHOULD STOP RAISING INTEREST RATES AT THIS POINT. I THINK THAT IT'S CONTINUING TO SORT OF CHASE SOMETHING THAT ISN'T GONNA BE RESOLVED THROUGH RAISING INTEREST RATES. UH, AND WE'LL SEE IF THEY, IF THEY, UH, ABIDE BY THAT. I DON'T KNOW. I WAS HOPEFUL, UM, IN THE WAKE OF THE MOST IMMEDIATE FED MEETING WHERE THEY MADE SOME COMMENTS SAYING THEY MIGHT BE DONE. BUT I JUST SAW A SPEECH FROM ONE OF THE FED GOVERNORS SAYING, OH NO, NO, WE GOTTA GET TO 2% INFLATION. WELL, IF YOU GOTTA GET TO 2% INFLATION, YOU'RE GONNA HAVE TO KEEP RAISING INTEREST RATES TO THE POINT WHERE YOU'RE GONNA DO SOME SERIOUS DAMAGE. SO THAT WORRIES ME. THE OTHER THING THAT WORRIES ME A LITTLE BIT IS WE HAVEN'T REALLY SEEN THE FULL IMPLICATIONS YET OF THE BANKING CRISIS, UH, THAT'S OUT THERE. ONE OF THE THINGS WE HAVE SEEN IS CERTAINLY IF YOU WANNA BORROW MONEY RIGHT NOW, YOU GOTTA PUT MORE SKIN IN THE GAME. YOU GOTTA PROVIDE MORE EQUITY. INTEREST RATES OBVIOUSLY ARE HIGHER. BUT THE OTHER THING HAS REALLY HAPPENED IS ALL THE BANKS ARE NERVOUS AS CAN BE TO USE AN OLD EAST TEXAS EXPRESSION JUST AS NERVOUS AS A LONG TAILED CAT AND A ROOM FULL OF ROCKING CHAIRS, WHICH I ALWAYS THOUGHT WAS A PRETTY, PRETTY FUNNY EXPRESSION. UH, AND SO THE UNDERWRITING STANDARDS, IT REALLY, REALLY INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY. IT'S A HECK OF A LOT HARDER TO BORROW MONEY RIGHT NOW. COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE, SPECIFICALLY FOR OFFICES IN SERIOUS TROUBLE, I'M WORKING ON A PROJECT RIGHT NOW WITH TEXAS A AND M UNIVERSITY UP IN FORT WORTH. WE ARE GONNA BUILD THREE NEW BUILDINGS UP THERE, ULTIMATELY, MOST OF WHICH WILL BE FOR ACADEMIC PURPOSES, BUT AT LEAST A PORTION OF THAT IS GONNA BE FOR PRIVATE SECTOR PARTNERSHIPS FOR COMPANIES WHO WANT TO COME IN AND AFFILIATE WITH THE UNIVERSITY. AND WE WENT THROUGH THIS INTERESTING PROCESS TO BRING IN A PRIVATE SECTOR [00:05:01] DEVELOPER FOR A PORTION OF IT. WHEN THEY WERE SELECTED AS THE DEVELOPER, THEY WERE ONE OF FIVE FIRMS, FIVE TEAMS THAT KIND OF BID ON IT. UH, THEY SAID THEY HAD 30 DIFFERENT CAPITAL SOURCES, THREE MONTHS LATER, ZERO DON'T HAVE ANY CAPITAL SOURCES. AND SO WE'RE HAVING TO RESTRUCTURE THE DEAL, AS YOU MIGHT IMAGINE. SO ALL OF THESE ARE THINGS THAT ARE CONCERNS. DEMAND OUT THERE ON THE REAL ESTATE SIDE IS STILL REALLY GOOD, UH, IN SOME CONSUMER RELATED SECTORS. CERTAINLY LODGING AND ENTERTAINMENT'S STILL GOING PRETTY WELL. INDUSTRIAL SPACE ACTUALLY IS GOING PRETTY WELL. WE ARE SEEING SOME RELATIVELY STRONG MANUFACTURING PERFORMANCE IN DIFFERENT PARTS OF TEXAS. WE WERE SEEING A BOOM ON IT IN, UH, IN AUSTIN WHERE I LIVE. THE TESLA RELOCATION HAS STIMULATED A LOT OF THINGS IN AND AROUND THAT. AND THEN SAMSUNG'S ANNOUNCEMENT THAT THEY MIGHT ULTIMATELY BUILD 17 BILLION WORTH OF FABS UP IN WILLIAMSON COUNTY HAS HAD SOME IMPACT. UH, SO THEIR DEMAND FOR IN, FOR HARD TECH IS STILL PRETTY GOOD. SOFT TECH IS REALLY WEAK IF YOU MAKE YOUR BUSINESS MODEL IS DRIVEN BY ADVERTISING. SO IF YOU'RE GOOGLE OR IF YOU'RE META OR IF YOU'RE INDEED OR ANY OF THESE SORT OF PLATFORM BASED COMPANIES, YOU'RE EXPERIENCING LAYOFFS RIGHT NOW. YOU'RE HAVING A HARD TIME BECAUSE BUSINESSES ARE PULLING BACK THEIR SPENDING ON ADVERTISING. SO THOSE ARE SOME OF THE THINGS IN THE SHORT RUN. LONGER TERM WE'RE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT GLOBAL SUPPLY. I MEAN, THE SITUATION OBVIOUSLY IN AND AROUND THE UKRAINE HAS NOT BEEN RESOLVED. OPEC IS PERFECTLY WILLING TO CUT PRICES, I'M SORRY, EXCUSE ME, TO, TO UH, CUT PRODUCTION IN ORDER TO PROP UP PRICES. AND SO THAT'S SOMETHING WE'VE GOTTA PAY SOME ATTENTION TO. WE MAY SEE THAT BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SOME OF OUR NON FOSSIL FUTURE. WE'LL SEE. BUT LABOR FORCE IS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT VARIABLE. AND I I, THIS IS MAYBE NOT POLITICALLY POPULAR, BUT TO ME IMMIGRATION IS AN ECONOMIC ISSUE. WE NEED WORKERS, WE NEED CAPABLE WORKERS IN THIS COUNTRY. AND TO THE EXTENT THAT WE DON'T HAVE BIRTH RATES SUFFICIENT TO REPLENISH OUR LABOR FORCE AND TO THE EXTENT WE HAVE PEOPLE LEAVING THE LABOR FORCE, WE NEED TO FIND FOLKS TO FILL THOSE POSITIONS. SO TO ME, A COHERENT IMMIGRATION POLICY IS REALLY AN ECONOMIC ISSUE AS, AS MUCH AS ANYTHING AS OPPOSED TO SIMPLY BEING, FOR EXAMPLE, A BORDER SECURITY ISSUE. SO HAVING SAID ALL THAT, LET ME SHOW YOU SOME PICTURES. THIS IS A CHART SHOWING INFLATION. I TEND TO DO THINGS ON A 12 MONTH PERCENTAGE CHANGE BASIS. SO IF WE'RE LOOKING AT APRIL OF 23, THAT'S IN COMPARISON OF APRIL THE 22. I'M NOT A BIG FAN OF SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT. I KNOW ENOUGH ABOUT IT TO BE DANGEROUS AND I KNOW I THINK IT'S IMPRECISE. THIS TAKES SEASONALITY OUT OF THE EQUATION. I THINK IT MAKES TRENDS A LITTLE MORE EVIDENT. THIS WAS ACTUALLY AS OF MARCH, THE APRIL NUMBERS CAME IN AT 4.2%, BUT ALL ITEMS LESS FOOD AND ENERGY WERE STILL WELL UP ABOVE 5% IN APRIL. AND SO AGAIN, IT'S BETTER THAN IT WAS LAST SUMMER, BUT IT'S A LONG WAYS AWAY FROM WHERE THE FED WANTS IT TO BE. THIS IS THE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE THAT I I SPOKE TO Y'ALL ABOUT BEFORE. AND SO THIS IS AS A SHARE OF THE CIVILIAN POPULATION, GOES ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE BEGINNING OF THIS CENTURY, 20 YEARS GOING BACK. AND YOU CAN SEE IT SLOWLY DECLINING THE GRAY SHADED AREAS OR PERIODS OF RECESSION. THE SHARP DROP IS THE PANDEMIC IN RECENT PAST AND IT'S COME BACK, BUT IT'S NOT COME ALL THE WAY BACK. SOME OF THAT IS DUE TO EARLY RETIREMENTS. PEOPLE SAID, YOU KNOW WHAT I'VE DONE WELL ENOUGH, THE PANDEMIC HIT I'M OUT. SOME OF THAT IS PEOPLE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH CHILDCARE. A VERY HARD TIME WITH CHILDCARE OUT THERE RIGHT NOW, WHICH IS PREVENTING MANY FOLKS FROM BEING IN THE LABOR FORCE. AND THEN QUITE FRANKLY, ABOUT HALF A A MILLION PEOPLE DIED WHO WERE IN THE LABOR FORCE AS PART OF THE PANDEMIC. YOU PUT ALL THESE FACTORS TOGETHER AND WE'RE SHORT WORKERS. SO HOW DO WE FEEL AS A NATION GIVEN THAT WE'RE NOT FEELING TOO GREAT THESE DAYS? CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS ARE IN ABOUT THE SAME PLACE THEY WERE DURING THE GREAT RECESSION, 2008, 2009, 2010. AND PART OF THE REASON WHY WE'RE NOT FEELING SO GREAT IS WE SAVED A WHOLE LOT OF MONEY DURING THE PANDEMIC. CAUSE WE COULDN'T GO ANYWHERE AND DO ANYTHING EXCEPT CALL AMAZON AND BUY STUFF WE DIDN'T NEED. SO IT COULD CLUTTER OUR FRONT PORCHES. UH, AND WE ARE NOW AT THE PLACE WHERE OUR SAVINGS RATES DOWN UNDER 5%, PARTLY BECAUSE ALL OF US ARE STILL SERVICING SOME CONSUMER DEBT AND IT'S GETTING MORE EXPENSIVE. YOU KNOW, WHAT ARE CREDIT CARDS UP TO NOW? 28%. MM-HMM. CRAZY. SO ENERGY PRICES OBVIOUSLY MATTER TO FOLKS IN THIS MARKET. WHAT I'VE PUT UP HERE IS THE PRICE OF WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE ON A MONTHLY BASIS AND THEN WHAT THE FUTURE'S MARKET THINKS IT'S GONNA DO. UH, [00:10:01] THEY THINK IT'S GONNA GO DOWN. THAT'S NOT BECAUSE OPEC IS GONNA BE SPORTY ABOUT PRODUCTION, IT'S BECAUSE THEY THINK RECESSION IS COMING. THAT'S WHY THEY THINK DEMAND FOR OIL BECAUSE OF RECESSIONARY UH, CONDITIONS IS GONNA DRIVE IT DOWN JUST A LITTLE BIT. AND THIS IS KIND OF AN INTERESTING THING. THIS IS HISTORY. THESE ARE SOME OF THE MAJOR INDICATORS THAT YOU MIGHT ONE MIGHT LOOK AT TO GET A FEEL OF WHAT'S GOING ON IN THE ECONOMY SUCH AS PROFIT MARGINS, THE YIELD CURVE, HOUSING PERMITS, ALL THESE DIFFERENT THINGS. AND THESE ARE PERIODS OF PREVIOUS RECESSIONS OUT THERE TO THE RIGHT. AND THAT'S SORT OF WHERE THINGS ARE. AND IF YOU LOOK AT THAT FROM A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE, THERE'S A LOT OF RED CROSSES, MEANING THINGS WEREN'T SO GREAT OUT THERE TO THE RIGHT AND CURRENTLY THERE'S TOO MANY RED CROSSES, WHICH AGAIN SUGGESTS THAT RECESSION MIGHT VERY WELL BE COMING. SO THE PROBABILITY ACCORDING TO THE FOLKS IN PHILADELPHIA AT THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK HAS SKYROCKETED RECENT MONTHS. IT'S UP TO ABOUT 57% THESE DAYS. IT'S ACTUALLY HIGHER THAN WHEN I MADE THAT CHART. AND THE CONFERENCE BOARD, WHICH IS A PRETTY GOOD GROUP OUT IN NEW YORK, PULLS TOGETHER A LOT OF INFORMATION FROM DIFFERENT SOURCES AND HAS THEIR OWN FOLKS ON STAFF THINKS THAT GDP WILL ACTUALLY NOT DECLINE, BUT THEY DO FORECAST A COUPLE QUARTERS OF RECESSION. UM, THOSE ARE ALL THE THINGS THAT WE TALK ABOUT. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT INTEREST RATES WILL FALL PROBABLY TOWARD THE AUTUMN OF THIS YEAR. THAT'S IN PART BECAUSE EVERYBODY THINKS THE FED WILL REALIZE THEY'VE GONE TOO FAR AND THEY NEED TO CUT BACK. SO THAT'S THE BIG PICTURE US CONTEXT AROUND ALL THIS. WHAT'S HAPPENING TERMS OF THE REGIONAL ECONOMY HERE IN THE HU YOU KNOW, SORT OF THE GREATER HOUSTON AREA SLOWING DOWN A LITTLE BIT. YOU SEE JOB GROWTH IS STILL QUITE POSITIVE, BUT IT'S BEGINNING TO DECELERATE A LITTLE BIT. AND THE FOLKS UH, UP IN AT THE UH, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK UP IN DALLAS PUT TOGETHER LEADING INDICES WHICH COMBINE DIFFERENT MEASURES OF REGIONAL ECONOMIES FOR ALL THE MAJOR METRO AREAS IN TEXAS. THAT'S THE ORANGE LINE THERE. THAT'S THE HOUSTON AREA LEADING INDEX. IT'S DECLINING AS WELL. NOT HOUSTON IS NOT UNIQUE. ALL MAJOR AREAS OF TEXAS ARE, ARE EXPERIENCING A SIMILAR PATTERN. YOU ARE CERTAINLY SEEING AVERAGE WEEKLY WAGES RISE 1200 BUCKS A WEEK ON AVERAGE. THAT'S PRETTY GOOD BY HISTORICAL COUNT FOR SURE. AND THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS AGAIN, HISTORICALLY QUITE LOW. I MEAN, BACK AT NERD SCHOOL, THEY TAUGHT US THAT THE SPEED LIMIT WAS ABOUT FOUR. IN OTHER WORDS THAT IF YOU HAD A 4% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, THAT WAS ESSENTIALLY FULL EMPLOYMENT BECAUSE FOLKS WERE CHANGING JOBS, STEPPED OUT OF THE LABOR FORCE ON MATERNITY LEAVE, WHAT HAVE YOU, IT WAS A FUNCTIONALLY FULL EMPLOYMENT. I DON'T THINK THAT'S TRUE ANYMORE. I THINK THE NUMBER'S A LITTLE BIT LOWER, BUT THERE'S NO QUESTION THAT IN TERMS OF THE LABOR MARKET RIGHT NOW, IT'S A GOOD TIME TO BE A WORKER. PEOPLE NEED YOU AND THEY'RE WILLING TO PAY FOR YOU TO BE THERE. AND SO WHAT HAS BEEN THE PATTERN HERE IN RIVER CITY, WHICH IS OBVIOUSLY WHAT WE CARE ABOUT? WELL, ON AN ANNUALIZED BASIS, JOB GROWTH HAS BEEN REALLY GOOD. YOU OBVIOUSLY HAD A DECLINE IN 2020. EVERYBODY DID. BUT REALLY, AND THIS IS, IT'S BEEN PRETTY GOOD LAST YEAR, 4.3% GROWTH. AND THIS MEASURE OF JOB GROWTH IS WHAT'S CALLED THE HOUSEHOLD SURVEY. SO THEY PICK UP THE PHONE, THEY CALL YOU AT YOUR PLACE OF RESIDENCE AND SAY, ARE YOU EMPLOYED? YES OR NO? IN THE END, THAT'S THE BASIS OF COMING UP WITH THIS MEASURE OF EMPLOYMENT. IT'S ALSO THE BASIS UPON WHICH THEY CALCULATE THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE. SO YOU CAN GET AN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOR THE CITY OF MISSOURI CITY. THEY DON'T ASK YOU WHERE YOU WORK, THEY DON'T ASK YOU WHAT YOU DO. THEY DON'T ASK YOU HOW MUCH MONEY YOU MAKE. THEY JUST ASK YOU DO YOU HAVE A JOB AND ARE YOU ACTIVELY, IF YOU DON'T HAVE A JOB, ARE YOU ACTIVELY TRYING TO GET ONE? BECAUSE IF YOU'RE NOT ACTIVELY TRYING TO GET ONE, THEN YOU KIND OF GET TAKEN OUT OF THE STATISTICS. I'LL GIVE YOU A MINOR ANECDOTE. ABOUT A THOUSAND YEARS AGO I WAS WORKING FOR THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT IN LONDON WHEN MARGARET THATCHER WAS THE PRIME MINISTER. IT WAS MY FIRST GIG WHEN I WAS IN COLLEGE. I GOT AN INTERNSHIP OVER THERE AND SHE NEEDED THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE TO GO DOWN. SO SHE CHANGED THE DEFINITION OF DISCOURAGED WORKER. AND WHAT THAT MEANT WAS, HISTORICALLY, AFTER 20 WEEKS OF LOOKING FOR A JOB, IF YOU HADN'T FOUND ONE, YOU WERE A DISCOURAGED WORKER AND YOU WERE NO LONGER IN THE STATISTICS, SHE DROPPED IT DOWN TO 12, JUST UNILATERALLY SAID, WE'RE DONE, WE'RE GOING DOWN TO 12. AND INSTANTLY THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE WENT DOWN. SO PAY, PAY SOME ATTENTION TO THE UNDERLYING DATA, I GUESS IS THE POINT. BUT NO QUESTION FOLKS IN WHO LIVE IN MISSOURI CITY HAVE BEEN ABLE TO FIND JOBS IN THE RECENT PAST. AND AT THE SAME TIME, THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HAS GONE WAY DOWN. AGAIN, THE 2020 NUMBERS AND ABERRATION BECAUSE OF THE PANDEMIC. BUT 4.4% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE'S VERY SOLID. SO THE LABOR MARKETER IS PRETTY GOOD. [00:15:02] FIRST TIME, UH, WE WERE ABLE TO GET DATA ON THE AVERAGE HOME PRICE HERE IN THIS AREA. THE HOUSTON BOARD OF REALTORS IS NOW FINALLY PROVIDING INFORMATION BROKEN DOWN FOR REGIONS WITHIN THE GREATER HOUSTON AREA. I USED TO FUMBLE AROUND WITH FORT BEND COUNTY DATA AND SO I'M HAPPY TO HAVE UH, MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION. THIS IS THE PATTERN EVERYWHERE. SO IN FEBRUARY OF 2019, THE AVERAGE HOME PRICE HERE, A COUPLE HUNDRED THOUSAND DOLLARS TODAY MORE THAN DOUBLE THAT, BUT IT'S BACKING OFF THE PEAK. WHY IS THAT INTEREST RATES FUNDAMENTALLY WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT WHEN YOU PAY FOR YOUR HOME, WHAT ARE YOU PAYING? YOU'RE PAYING PRINCIPLE INTEREST, TAXES, AND INSURANCE. WHEN ONE OF THOSE ELEMENTS GOES UP, UNLESS YOUR INCOME HAS GONE UP COMMENSURATE WITH IT, YOU GOTTA PAY LESS. SO HISTORICALLY, AS INTEREST RATES RISE, HOME PRICES GO DOWN. CONVERSELY, IN AN INTERESTING VERSION OF THAT WAY BACK IN THE DAY, CALIFORNIA LIMITED THE INCREASE IN PROPERTY TAXES AND HOME PRICES SKYROCKETED INSTANTLY BECAUSE AGAIN, ONE OF THE FOUR ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN DEPRESSED. SO THE PRICE OF THE HOME COULD RISE CUZ YOU COULD AFFORD MORE IN PRINCIPLE AND BUY EXTENSION INTEREST IN TAX, IN, UH, INSURANCE, HOUSING AVAILABILITY, 2.3 MONTHS. THAT'S AN INCREASE FROM WHERE WE WERE, UH, 12 MONTHS AGO. BUT HISTORICALLY, I KEEP SAYING THAT WORD HISTORICALLY, FOLKS AT A AND M THINK SIX MONTHS OF HOUSING AVAILABILITY IS A BALANCED MARKET. WE'RE NOWHERE CLOSE TO THAT. SO IT'S STILL A TIGHT MARKET FOR HOUSING. AND WHAT'S HAPPENING IS PEOPLE ARE SAYING, MAN, I REALLY LIKED IT WHEN THOSE PRICES PEAKED ABOUT A YEAR, A YEAR AND A HALF AGO. I'M GONNA HANG ON CUZ I BET IT'S COMING BACK. AND SO YOU HAVE LOTS OF PEOPLE UNWILLING TO SELL THEIR HOMES RIGHT NOW WHO OTHERWISE WOULD WANT TO BECAUSE THEY REMEMBER THAT 12, 18 MONTHS AGO THEY COULD HAVE GOTTEN 10, 15% MORE AND THEY'RE WAITING FOR THAT TO COME BACK. SO HERE'S MY HISTORY AND FORECAST IN TERMS OF YOUR TOTAL EMPLOYMENT IN THE COMMUNITY. AGAIN, YOU SEE IT DIP A LITTLE IN 2020 AND THEN STARTS TO RISE. IT'S GONNA RISE NEXT YEAR, I THINK, BUT AT A LITTLE BIT SLOWER RATE REALLY FOR THE NEXT TWO YEARS DUE TO THE IMPACTS AT THE NATIONAL, INTERNATIONAL, AND REGIONAL LEVEL OF MUCH SLOWER ECONOMY, IE. RECESSION. AND THEN IT WILL PICK BACK UP AGAIN. AND I'D THINK BY THE END OF THIS DECADE, YOU'D BE WELL OVER 45,000 FOLKS WHO LIVE IN MISSOURI CITY WOULD BE EMPLOYED. AND THEN WE TALK ABOUT SALES TAX REVENUE. AGAIN, THIS IS DONE ON A QUARTERLY BASIS. I DID THIS JUST TO SMOOTH IT OUT A LITTLE BIT. THERE WERE SOME REALLY GOOD YEARS HERE. I WOULD NEVER HAVE FORECASTED 20% SALES TAX GROWTH. I JUST DON'T, I JUST DON'T HAVE THE KONES TO DO THAT. BUT I'M SURE GLAD YOU GUYS GOT TO EXPERIENCE IT. UM, HAVING SAID THAT, IT IS STARTING TO SLOW DOWN JUST A LITTLE BIT, OBVIOUSLY. UH, AND WE EXPECT IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN EVEN FURTHER. BUT BEFORE WE GET TO THAT, I DID THROW UP HERE SOME PURE CITIES. THIS IS CALENDAR YEAR 2023 TO DATE, AND THEN THE 12 MONTH CHANGE COMPARED TO 2022. UH, IT'S INTERESTING TO SEE ROUND ROCK AND NEW BRAUN FALLS OVER IN CENTRAL TEXAS ARE GROWING VERY SLOWLY BECAUSE THEY ARE COMING OFF AN EXTRAORDINARY ELEVATED BASE. YOU KNOW, THEY ABSOLUTELY KILLED IT DURING THE PANDEMIC IN PART BECAUSE PEOPLE WHO LIVED IN THOSE COMMUNITIES WEREN'T GOING INTO SAN ANTONIO, WEREN'T GOING INTO AUSTIN TO SPEND MONEY. SO THIS IS HOW MISSOURI CITY LOOKS COMPARED TO PEARLAND SUGAR LAND. I DON'T KNOW WHAT'S GOING ON IN KATIE PASADENA, ET CETERA. AGAIN, TO GIVE YOU SOME SENSE OF WHERE YOU STACK UP WITH SOME OF YOUR PEERS. AND THEN ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WE'VE ALWAYS LOOKED AT AS A WAY TO KIND OF PAY ATTENTION TO WHAT'S GOING ON IS KIND OF LOOK AT THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GROWTH AND SALES, TAX AND GROWTH AND JOBS. NOW YOU HAVE A HUGE DOWNTURN IN JOBS THERE. THAT'S THE BLUE LINE IN 2020 BECAUSE OF THE PANDEMIC. THAT'S AN ABERRATION. BUT YOU SEE THEY TEND TO MOVE FAIRLY CLOSELY TOGETHER THROUGH HISTORY, BUT THEY'RE BEGINNING TO DIVERGE A LITTLE BIT RIGHT NOW. AND THAT'S INFLATION. SO WHAT'S HAPPENING IS IN THE, FROM A MUNICIPALITIES POINT OF VIEW OR FROM THE STATE OF TEXAS POINT OF VIEW, INFLATION, ALL OTHER THINGS BEING EQUAL BUMPS UP SALES TAX REVENUE. YOU KNOW, I MEAN, AS CITIZENS WE'RE NOT THRILLED ABOUT THAT. BUT AS MUNICIPAL OFFICIALS, WELL WE'LL TAKE IT, RIGHT? AND SO THAT'S WHERE YOU'RE BEGINNING TO SEE A LITTLE BIT OF THAT DEVIATION THERE. YOU'RE NOT GETTING JOB GROWTH AT THE SAME RATE AS YOU'RE SEEING THE GROWTH IN SALES TAX BECAUSE EVERYTHING COSTS MORE THAN IT USED TO. AND OBVIOUSLY SALES TAX GOES WITH THAT. SO HERE'S WHAT WE THINK IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST. WE THINK FISCAL YEAR 2023 WILL END UP AT ABOUT 8.7% GROWTH OVER FISCAL 22. [00:20:01] I THINK THAT'S GONNA DROP NEXT YEAR DOWN INTO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THREE AND A HALF AND 4%. AND THE REASON I THINK THAT IS A COMBINATION, AGAIN, COMING OFF A RELATIVELY ELEVATED BASE OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS AND THE IMPACTS OF RECESSION, SLOWER SPENDING OUT THERE IN GENERAL, I THINK IT WILL THEN TEND TO, IT WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD BACK. AND I THINK BY 26, 27, YOU'RE BACK ON WHAT I WOULD THINK THE LONG-TERM TREND FOR THIS COMMUNITY WOULD LIKELY TO BE, WHICH WOULD BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SIX AND A HALF AND 7% GOING FORWARD. AND SO WITH THAT, WE PUT UP A COUPLE OF ALTERNATIVES JUST FOR GRINS. BOTH, BOTH OF THESE ARE JUST VARIATIONS ON THE THEME. THE OPTIMISTIC VIEW IS IT'S A SHORT RECESSION. SUPPLY CHAINS FIX THEMSELVES, UH, FED STOPS RAISING RATES AND THEN ULTIMATELY CUTS INTEREST RATES, WHICH WOULD'VE A VERY POSITIVE EFFECT. THE ECONOMY RECOVERS A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY. YOU KNOW, THE PESSIMISTIC VIEW GOES THE OTHER WAY. INFLATION DOESN'T COME DOWN. FED KEEPS JACKING RATES AND THEN RECESSION DEEPENS AS A RESULT OF THAT. AGAIN, JUST TO GIVE YOU SOME ALTERNATIVE VIEWS ON THAT. AND SO THE CONCLUSIONS, FEDERAL STIMULUS IS GONE. UNPRECEDENTED LEVEL OF, UH, PET UP DEMAND IS WAY PAST ITS SPEED. MONETARY POLICY OBVIOUSLY IS TIGHTENED UP CONSIDERABLY. INFLATION'S SURGED AND CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS ARE AT HISTORIC LOWS. THAT ALL ADDS UP TO RECESSION LONGER TERM. IT'S ABOUT THE FUNDAMENTALS. WHAT'S YOUR POPULATION GROWTH LOOK LIKE BY EXTENSION? WHAT KIND OF HOUSING CAPACITY ARE YOU ABLE TO PUT IN PLACE? WHAT KIND OF WORKFORCE AVAILABILITY DO YOU AND COST DO YOU HAVE? AND CAN YOU CONTINUE TO ATTRACT INTO THIS COMMUNITY, NOT JUST FOLKS WHO WANNA LIVE HERE, BUT ULTIMATELY THE CAPACITY FOR FOLKS TO COME TO WORK IN THIS COMMUNITY AS WELL. AND THAT'S WHAT I MEAN BY PRIMARY JOB GROWTH. IN OTHER WORDS, COMPANIES ATTRACTING COMPANIES INTO THIS COMMUNITY AS OPPOSED TO HOUSEHOLDS AND RETAIL ACTIVITY AND ENTERTAINMENT AND ALL THAT. AND SO WITH THAT, THAT'S THE SHORT VERSION BY THE WAY. ALL RIGHT. . WELL, THE LONG VERSION COULD GO ON FOREVER. THAT'S THE SHORT VERSION. WELL, THANK YOU. THANK YOU. THANK YOU. ALL RIGHT, COUNCIL OF ROLLS. YES, JOHN, GOING BACK TO THE SALES TAX RATE, THE, UH, GOING BACK TO THE SALES TAX, THE SUGAR LAND NUMBER REALLY STUNNED ME. UM, LET ME, LET ME JUST PULL IT BACK UP SO WE HAVE IT ON AND I KNOW, YOU KNOW, THEY HAVE A, A MALL THERE AND A LOT OF OTHER RETAIL. ANY IDEA WHAT'S TRIGGERING THAT LOW? MY GUESS WOULD BE IT'S THE SAME THING WITH ROUND ROCK AND NEW BRAUN FALLS, WHICH WAS THE PREVIOUS YEARS WERE 25%. AND SO WHEN YOU'VE, YOU'VE GOT THIS ENORMOUSLY ELEVATED BASE, IT'S HARD TO MAINTAIN GROWTH. I, I HAD A HUGE FIGHT WITH THE CITY MANAGER, HUGE FIGHT. I, I SAID, MA'AM, I RESPECTFULLY DISAGREE. , UH, AT ONE POINT WITH THE CITY MANAGER OF AUSTIN, CUZ SHE WANTED TO PROJECT THREE YEARS IN A ROW OF 10% GROWTH. AND I SAID, IT'S JUST REALLY HARD ABSENT EXTRAORDINARY THINGS TO STACK THAT KIND OF THING, ONE ON TOP OF THE OTHER. AND SO MY GUESS IS THAT'S WHAT'S GOING ON IN SUGAR LAND. OKAY. COMING OFF OF AN ELEVATED BASE. THANK YOU. THANK YOU. COUNCIL MEMBER BONNEY. YES. THANK YOU FOR SO MUCH AS ALWAYS FOR YOUR PRESENTATION. I HAVE A FEW QUESTIONS. UH, SURE. FIRST AND FOREMOST, SO WITH THE POTENTIAL LEGISLATION THAT'S GOING ON IN, UH, AUSTIN RIGHT NOW SURROUNDING PROPERTY TAX CAP, A COUPLE, WITH THE TAX LEGISLATION THAT'S ALREADY IN PLACE, DO YOU FORESEE THAT, UH, THAT WOULD NEGATIVELY IMPACT CITIES LIKE OURS YEAH. ACROSS TEXAS AND, AND IF SO, HOW? HOW MUCH? SO I, I SPENT MY MORNING WITH THE SENATE FINANCE COMMITTEE. THAT'S THREE HOURS OF MY LIFE, I'LL NEVER GET BACK. UM, I WAS, I WAS ACTUALLY TESTIFYING ON SOMETHING THAT I, I'M WORKING ON THAT I REALLY AM PLEASED TO BE WORKING ON, WHICH IS THE STATE IS CONTEMPLATING PUTTING IN FRONT OF ALL OF US, UH, AS A CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT ALLOCATING 5 BILLION FOR UNIVERSAL BROADBAND, WHICH I THINK IS A REALLY, REALLY SMART INVESTMENT. BUT I DIGRESS. HAVING SAID THAT, IT IS ABUNDANTLY CLEAR THAT THIS LEGISLATURE IS INTERESTED IN CONSTRAINING THE CAPACITY OF MUNICIPALITIES TO OPERATE. AND THEY'RE GONNA FIND A LOT OF DIFFERENT WAYS TO DO THAT. AND THE CHALLENGE THAT THAT CREATES FOR YOU ALL, THERE ARE MANY CHALLENGES, BUT THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE I WOULD SEE IS PLANNING FOR YOUR FUTURE IN A COHERENT WAY. BECAUSE IF YOU HAVE A HARD CAP ON HOW MUCH REVENUE YOU CAN RAISE, THEN IF YOU HAVE A COUPLE OF BAD YEARS, YOU'RE IN TROUBLE. AND SO, IN PARTICULARLY AROUND INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING, I THINK IT'S GONNA MAKE THINGS VERY, VERY DIFFICULT GOING FORWARD. AND SO, YES, I, I THINK I, I THINK WE COULD GET INTO THE SPECIFICS OF DIFFERENT BILLS, BUT I THINK THE NET TRANSLATION OF THAT IS GOING TO BE THAT THE EXPECTATION WILL BE THAT THERE WILL NOT BE [00:25:01] GROWTH IN MUNICIPAL SERVICES AND THAT FINANCING MUNICIPAL INFRASTRUCTURE IS GONNA BE MORE DIFFICULT IN THE FUTURE THAN IT HAS BEEN IN THE PAST. SO PIGGYBACKING ON THAT, WITH THIS IMPENDING, UH, RECESSION THAT YOU FORESEE YEAH. DO YOU SEE THAT, UH, IMPACTING PROPERTY AND LAND VALUES ACROSS, UH, TEXAS AS WELL? YEAH, IF NOTHING ELSE, WHEN PEOPLE PERCEIVE THAT THERE IS A RECESSION OUT THERE, THEY'RE MOTIVATED TO GO PROTEST AND TO GO FIGHT. NOW I KNOW, I KNOW A LITTLE SOMETHING ABOUT APPRAISAL DISTRICTS. I'VE WORKED WITH 'EM ON A NUMBER OF CASES AND THEY TRY, THEY TRY TO EVEN OUT THE PATH. SO WHEN THINGS ARE SKYROCKETING, THEY DON'T RAISE VALUES AS QUICKLY AS THE UNDERLYING MARKET WOULD SUGGEST SO THAT WHEN THINGS GO THE OTHER WAY, THEY CAN KEEP VALUES RELATIVELY HIGHER. AND THEY DO THAT TO TRY TO SMOOTH THINGS OUT TO SOME DEGREE. BUT THE INTERESTING THING ABOUT, ABOUT WHAT, YOU KNOW, THE THREE AND A HALF PERCENT CAP IS, OF COURSE IT APPLIES ONLY TO EXISTING PROPERTIES. I MEAN, IF YOU HAVE NEW THINGS COMING ONLINE, OBVIOUSLY THAT'S ADDITIVE TO WHAT'S GOING ON ALREADY. SO I'M HOPEFUL THAT APPRAISAL DISTRICTS HERE WILL HAVE TAKEN THAT KIND OF MODERATE VIEW. THEY WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO LOWER VALUES THAN THE MARKET MIGHT SUGGEST BECAUSE THEY'VE GOT SOME HEADROOM CUZ THEY DIDN'T RAISE 'EM AS MUCH. YOU, YOU FOLLOW WHAT I'M SAYING? MM-HMM. . YEAH. SO, UM, BUT YEAH, I DO THINK IT WILL MAKE IT CHALLENGING AND I THINK PARTICULARLY ON THE COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL SIDE, BECAUSE FOLKS WILL BE DEFINITELY MOTIVATED TO TRY TO GET THEIR PROPERTY TAXES REDUCED. I MEAN, AT LEAST FOR A TYPICAL RENTER, PROPERTY TAXES ALL IN CAN BE BETWEEN 20 AND 25% OF THEIR, THEIR RENT. PROBABLY NOT QUITE THAT MUCH ON THE COMMERCIAL SIDE, BUT IT'S A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. LAST QUESTION, MAYOR. UH, ALSO WITH THIS IMPENDING RECESSION, DO YOU FORESEE FEDERALLY ANOTHER STIMULUS MAYBE ON THE HORIZON OR NO, THAT'S PRETTY MUCH IT. I, I THINK GIVEN THE FACT WE PUMPED IN 7 TRILLION THROUGH THE PANDEMIC AND IN AN ECONOMY THAT'S 21 TRILLION ANNUALLY, I DON'T THINK WE GOT ANY DRY POWDER LEFT. AND WE CERTAINLY CAN'T AFFORD TO BORROW ANY MORE MONEY BECAUSE IT'S ONE THING TO SERVICE THE DEBT WHEN THE MONEY'S ALMOST FREE. IT'S ANOTHER THING TO SERVICE THE DEBT WHEN INTEREST RATES HAVE BEEN RAISED 10 TIMES. I MEAN, THAT AFFECTS THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TOO. I, I CAN'T IMAGINE A SITUATION WHERE YOU'D SEE ANOTHER STIMULUS COMING IN A RECESSION PERIOD UNLESS IT WAS JUST REALLY EPICLY BAD AND WE HAD A SITUATION WHERE THE DEMOCRATS CONTROLLED THE PRESIDENCY AND BOTH HOUSES OF CONGRESS. THANK YOU. YOU BET. THAT'S ONE MAN'S OPINION, OBVIOUSLY . MAY I PRO TO A MEMORY? YEAH. THANKS FOR PRESENTATION. UH, YEAH. THANKS FOR PRESENTATION. SURE. UH, AGAIN, YOU'VE GOT SOME GOOD THINGS WE'D LIKE TO HEAR AND SOME, YOU KNOW, SOME THINGS THAT, UH, WE'D RATHER NOT HEAR. I, I'M NEVER THE MINISTER OF SUNSHINE, BUT YEAH. YOU KNOW, WE NEED A DOSE OF REALITY. SO, UH, ONE OF THE QUESTIONS THAT, UH, I HAD WAS, UH, WHEN YOU LOOK AT EMPLOYMENT, UH, UH, ONE OF THE QUESTIONS I HAD ARE, WHAT ARE THE DISCIPLINES THAT ARE HOT AS FAR AS EMPLOYMENT AND, UH, WHAT ARE THE ONES THAT ARE, ARE SLOWING DOWN AND, YOU KNOW, WOULD BE LIKE A DRAG, I GUESS , I'LL, I'LL ANSWER THE QUESTION A SLIGHTLY DI LET ME ANSWER IT A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WAY. OKAY. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY IS INVOLVED IN EVERYTHING AND IN IN THINGS YOU CAN'T, YOU AND I AS BEING FOLKS WHO GREW UP WHEN THERE WAS NO INTERNET, CAN'T EVEN IMAGINE. SO THE ABILITY TO MANAGE INFORMATION, TO ACCESS AND MANAGE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY IS THE PATH TO WELL-COMPENSATED EMPLOYMENT. AND THAT CUTS ACROSS ALL DIFFERENT KINDS OF OCCUPATIONS, ALL DIFFERENT KINDS OF INDUSTRIES. ANYTHING YOU CAN THINK OF, I'LL GIVE YOU AN EXAMPLE. I'M A, I'M A TRUSTEE OF A HOSPITAL SYSTEM. WELL, YOU KNOW WHAT WE NEED, WE NEED NURSES, BUT WHAT WE REALLY NEED ARE MEDICAL INFORMATION TECHNOLOGISTS, PEOPLE WHO CAN REALLY ACCESS INFORMATION FROM YOU AS A PATIENT, FEED IT INTO A DATABASE SYSTEM, MAKE THAT AVAILABLE TO ALL OF OUR MEDICAL SERVICE PROVIDERS. AND THEN WHAT WE REALLY NEED IS A MORE SOPHISTICATED AI SYSTEM. SO BECAUSE WE CAN'T HIRE ENOUGH NURSES AND WE SURE AS HELP CAN'T FIND ENOUGH DOCTORS SO THAT THE ONES WE HAVE CAN DO MORE BY LEANING ON TECHNOLOGY, THAT'S AN EXAMPLE. EVERY SINGLE PROFESSION I CAN THINK OF HAS A STORY SOMEWHAT ANALOGOUS TO, SO EVERY CHILD GOING THROUGH EDUCATION RIGHT NOW, AND OF COURSE THEY ALL KNOW HOW TO RUN TIKTOK AND THEY ALL KNOW HOW TO ACCESS SOCIAL MEDIA, BUT THE ABILITY TO AN MANAGE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND THE TOOLS ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS A PATH TO A GOOD JOB. THAT'S WHAT YOU NEED. IF YOU CAN'T DO THAT, YOU'RE A DINOSAUR. I'M GLAD I'M OLD CUZ I'LL BE [00:30:01] DONE SOON. I CAN'T DO IT AS WELL AS I NEED TO, UH, UNDER THE, UH, COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE. YES. UH, YOU SAID THAT IT'S, UH, IN SERIOUS TROUBLE. YES. UH, CAN YOU EX EXPAND ON THAT? CERTAINLY. THERE, THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO PROJECT FINANCE AT THIS POINT FOR OFFICE. ONE OF THE THINGS THAT HAS HAPPENED IN THE WAKE OF THE PANDEMIC IS THAT YES, WE'VE COME BACK TO THE OFFICE, BUT NOT FULLY AND WE HAD TOO MANY OFFICE BUILDINGS BEING BUILT ANYWAY. SO THERE'S A SURPLUS OF OFFICE SPACE OUT THERE AND YOU REALLY SEE IT IN THE TECHNOLOGY WORLD BECAUSE PART OF WHAT HAPPENED DURING THE PANDEMIC WAS A LOT OF THE PLATFORM-BASED TECHNOLOGY WORLD OVERHIRED, THEY BROUGHT IN WAY TOO MANY PEOPLE BECAUSE THEY HAD A SURGE IN BUSINESS BECAUSE PEOPLE WERE SENDING IT HOME WITH NOTHING TO DO. SO, AS AN EXAMPLE, FACEBOOK HAS A HALF A MILLION SQUARE FOOT BUILDING IN AUSTIN. THEY JUST FINISHED GONNA SUBLET THE ENTIRE THING CUZ THEY DON'T HAVE THE CAPACITY TO USE IT THEMSELVES. AND UNFORTUNATELY THEY'RE GONNA FIND NOT MANY TAKERS OUT THERE. SO THE CONVERSATION THAT'S GOING AROUND RIGHT NOW, HOW DO WE TURN THAT INTO HOUSING? OR DO YOU SEE THE STUFF ON BED BATH AND BEYOND IS NOW BECOMING PICKLEBALL COURTS. THAT'S INTERESTING TOO. , BUT THAT'S THE BIG PROBLEM IS THAT WE HAVE WAY TOO MUCH, WE HAVE WAY TOO MUCH OFFICE SPACE. WHAT WOULD YOU STAY AWAY FROM AS FAR AS, YOU KNOW, EMPLOYMENT? IF YOU WERE LOOKING FOR A DISCIPLINE, WHAT, UH, YOU KNOW, WOULD BE WHAT I WOULD CALL, UH, YOU KNOW, UH, SLOW GROWTH OR, YOU KNOW, NO GROWTH. SO MY ADVICE TO COMMUNITIES HAS ALWAYS BEEN FOCUSED MORE ON THE COMPANY RATHER THAN THE INDUSTRY. I WANT THE BEST COMPANY IN THE WORST INDUSTRY RATHER THAN THE WORST COMPANY IN THE BEST INDUSTRY BECAUSE THE BEST PEOPLE WILL ALWAYS FIGURE OUT A WAY TO MAKE IT WORK. THAT HAVING BEEN SAID, IF YOUR BUSINESS MODEL ISN'T REFLECTIVE OF WHAT I SAID EARLIER, WHICH IS UNDERSTANDING THE ROLE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY, HOW IT AFFECTS YOUR WORKFORCE, HOW IT AFFECTS YOUR CUSTOMER BASE, YOU MAY NOT LONG FOR THIS SITUATION. SO WHAT WOULD I LOOK FOR? I'D LOOK FOR COMPANIES THAT UNDERSTAND THAT. SO I'D LOOK FOR EXAMPLE, MANUFACTURING COMPANIES WHO WERE FULLY INTEGRATED THAT INTO THEIR PRODUCTION PROCESS. I'D LOOK FOR SERVICE COMPANIES FULLY INTEGRATED THAT INTO WHATEVER THEY'RE DOING. BUT I'D REALLY BE LOOKING FOR COMPANIES WHO UNDERSTOOD WHAT THEIR VALUE PROPOSITION WAS AND UNDERSTOOD WHAT THEIR COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE WAS VERSUS THEIR, THEIR PEERS. PEOPLE WHO UNDERSTAND WHAT THEY'RE DOING TO, WHO CAN DESCRIBE WELL, WHAT THEY'RE GOOD AT AND HOW THEY FIT INTO THEIR INDUSTRY USUALLY DO PRETTY, PRETTY WELL. OKAY. ALL RIGHT. THANK YOU. UH, I JUST, JUST HAVE A COMMENT. THANK YOU FOR SHARING THIS INFORMATION. YOU'RE WELCOME. REALLY APPRECIATE IT. AND I THINK, UH, NO QUESTIONS MIGHT JUST COMMENT TO IS TO OUR, OUR DIRECTOR ED. UH, I LIKE THIS CHART. I LIKE THE WAY COUNCILMAN MARS ASKED WHAT HAPPENED TO SUGARLAND. I MEAN, I THINK THE BOTTOM LINE IS WE'RE GROWING AND FORT BEND TOWN CENTER ONE AND TWO AND GO GET 'EM. I KNOW YOU HAD ALL THOSE, UM, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT WEEK LAST WEEK. I THINK THE, THE FASTER WE GROW, THE FASTER WE HAVE THINGS GOING ON. IT, IT TAKES AWAY FROM THEM BECAUSE I'VE ALWAYS KNOWN THAT MISSOURI CITY HAS ALWAYS BEEN SOMEWHAT OF A BEDROOM COMMUNITY MM-HMM. AND NOW WE'RE IN THAT, YOU KNOW, GROWTH, UH, ASPECT. AND IT, IT BASICALLY HELPED US, UH, NOT TO TAKE ANYTHING AWAY FROM ANY OF THE OTHER CITIES. SURE. BUT I'D RATHER HAVE OUR CITIZENS SPEND THEIR MONEY IN OUR OWN CITY WHERE IT COMES BACK, YOU KNOW, AND HELP OUR HELP WHAT, YOU KNOW, SUSTAIN JOBS, KEEP THOSE BUSINESSES GOING AND, AND HOPEFULLY, YOU KNOW, PEOPLE CAN INVEST MORE BACK INTO THE CITY. SO. AND HELP YOUR TAX BASE TOO. SAME TIME. ABSOLUTELY. THANK YOU. AND SEE COUNCIL MEMBER BONNIE. YEAH, I JUST HAD ONE QUICK QUESTION, UH, JUST WAS TRIGGERED, UH, ELENA AND OR ANGEL, UH, AS IT RELATED TO OUR BUDGET DISCUSSIONS THAT WE JUST RECENTLY HAD. WAS THIS IN LINE WITH THE PROJECTION THAT YOU HAD WITH SALES TAX OR IS THIS STARKLY DIFFERENT? IT IS IN LINE. UM, WE HAVE BEEN VERY CONSERVATIVE THOUGH. I KNOW HE COMES ON AN ANNUAL BASIS AND TELLS US WHAT HE BELIEVES IT WILL BE. UM, BUT WE HAVE ALWAYS BUDGETED LOWER. SO ALTHOUGH, UM, HE SHOWS THAT THE GROWTH POSSIBLY WILL BE, I THINK IT WAS THREE TO 4% NEXT YEAR, UM, WHEN WE BUDGET, WE'RE ACTUALLY A LITTLE FURTHER BEHIND BUDGET WISE, WHERE, UM, WE'RE ABLE TO TAKE THAT INTO ACCOUNT WHEN WE'RE LOOKING AT, CAN I SAY SOMETHING ABOUT THAT? THAT'S BEST PRACTICE? SO I, I DON'T REPLACE WHAT THESE GUYS DO. I'M AN EXTERNAL VIEW THAT GIVES YOU KIND OF A MORE THREE-DIMENSIONAL LOOK AT IT. MM-HMM. , BUT I GOT TAUGHT AS A YOUNG GUY BY A CITY MANAGER OF SAN ANTONIO. SO LET ME EXPLAIN SOMETHING TO YOU. IF YOU SAY IT'S GONNA BE FIVE AND I SAY IT'S FOUR AND IT TURNS OUT TO BE FIVE, NOBODY'S UNHAPPY. RIGHT? [00:35:01] , IF YOU SAY IT'S GONNA BE FIVE AND I SAY IT'S FOUR AND IT TURNS OUT TO BE THREE, EVERYBODY'S UNHAPPY . AND I SAID, I GOT IT. THE RISKS OF SHOOTING TOO HIGH ARE MUCH GREATER THAN THE RISKS OF BEING A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE. AND SO I THINK WHAT THEY'RE DOING REALLY IS EXACTLY THE RIGHT THING TO DO. THANK YOU. YOU BET. ALL RIGHT. ALL RIGHT. THANK YOU SO MUCH. I'LL LOOK FORWARD TO SEEING YOU AGAIN. THANKS VERY MUCH. THANK YOU. APPRECIATE IT. SUPPORT. ALL RIGHT. SO NOW TIME [5. CLOSED EXECUTIVE SESSION] IS 6:07 PM NEXT AND THE CITY COUNCIL WILL NOW GO INTO A CLOSED EXECUTIVE SESSION PURSUANT TO SECTION 5 51 0.071 AND 5 51 0.087 OF THE TEXAS GOVERNMENT CODE. WE'LL BE RIGHT BACK PLAYING. GET OFF LINE . READY? [6. RECONVENE] ALL RIGHT. GOOD EVENING EVERYONE. UM, SO ITEM NUMBER SIX, WE'RE GONNA GO AHEAD AND RECONVENE BACK INTO THIS MEETING AT 6:39 PM AND WE'LL GO AHEAD AND UH, RECESS THE MEETING AT 6 39 AND THEN WE'LL COME BACK TO IT RECESS BEFORE, RIGHT? YES, WE CAN MEET. YEAH. SO THE TIME IS 8:53 PM AND WE'RE GOING TO RECONVENE BACK INTO CITY COUNCIL SPECIAL MEETING TO THE CLOSE EXECUTIVE SESSION PURSUANT SECTION 5 5 1 0.071 AND 5 5 1 0.087. LET'S SEE. OKAY, TIME IS NINE. TIME IS 9:32 PM CITY COUNCIL WILL NOW RECONVENE BACK INTO SPECIAL MEETING. UH, I WOULD LIKE TO ASK THE COUNCIL IF THERE'S ANY MOTIONS OR ANY RECOMMENDATIONS. YES, MA'AM. I HAVE A MOTION. GO AHEAD. YES. I AUTHORIZE THE CITY ATTORNEY'S OFFICE TO FILE A LAWSUIT IN THE WALKER, TEXAS WORKFORCE COMMISSION MATTER. OKAY. IT'S BEEN A MOTION. 72ND. IT'S BEEN A SECOND BY MAYOR PROTO EMERY. OKAY, LET'S GO AHEAD AND VOTE. I DON'T SEE ANYBODY ELSE ON THE QUEUE. THE MOTION CARRIES SEVEN TO ZERO. ALL RIGHT. SINCE THERE ARE NO OTHER BUSINESS, UM, TIME IS 9:33 PM THE CITY COUNCIL WILL NOW ADJOURN. THANK YOU ALL. THANK YOU. THANK YOU. * This transcript was created by voice-to-text technology. The transcript has not been edited for errors or omissions, it is for reference only and is not the official minutes of the meeting.